This report was last updated on 2020-03-23. Data courtesy of JHU CSSE. See also the COVID Tracking Project.

Overview

Cases: 335,955

Active: 223,619 (66.6%)

Recovered: 97,704 (29.1%)

Deaths: 14,632 (4.4%)

Case Map

United States

Global

Cumulative Cases

United States

Linear Scale

The cumulative number of cases doesn’t tell us much – it’s not possible for this number to go down. We can see that the growth seems to be accelerating, but we will look closer in the next chart.

Log Scale

An OLS fit to the logged values shows how closely the pandemic mimics an exponential curve. (All pandemics are modeled as a logistic function since there is a ceiling to the number of infected individuals, but in the growth phase, we can model them as exponential.) If the rate of growth were slowing, points would begin to appear below the fit line. The second line is fit only only to March, once testing ramped up in the US – note the narrower confidence bands.

Global

Linear Scale

Log Scale

Growth Rate

United States

New Cases by Day

This is the famed curve that needs to be flattened so we don’t overwhelm our medical capacity on the first wave of the pandemic. As you can see, we are still climbing.

Rate of Change in New Cases

Now, let’s see the y-axis with the new cases as a multiple of the number of new cases the previous day. This is akin to the second derivative of the growth function. We want this to approach 0 as we flatten the curve.

Global

New Cases by Day

Rate of Change in New Cases

Table

United States

Date Cases ∂ Cases New Cases ∂ New Cases
2020-03-01 74 1.088 6 0.750
2020-03-02 98 1.324 24 4.000
2020-03-03 118 1.204 20 0.833
2020-03-04 149 1.263 31 1.550
2020-03-05 217 1.456 68 2.194
2020-03-06 262 1.207 45 0.662
2020-03-07 402 1.534 140 3.111
2020-03-08 518 1.289 116 0.829
2020-03-09 583 1.125 65 0.560
2020-03-10 959 1.645 376 5.785
2020-03-11 1,281 1.336 322 0.856
2020-03-12 1,663 1.298 382 1.186
2020-03-13 2,179 1.310 516 1.351
2020-03-14 2,727 1.251 548 1.062
2020-03-15 3,499 1.283 772 1.409
2020-03-16 4,632 1.324 1,133 1.468
2020-03-17 6,421 1.386 1,789 1.579
2020-03-18 7,783 1.212 1,362 0.761
2020-03-19 13,677 1.757 5,894 4.327
2020-03-20 19,100 1.397 5,423 0.920
2020-03-21 25,489 1.335 6,389 1.178
2020-03-22 33,272 1.305 7,783 1.218

Global

Date Cases ∂ Cases New Cases ∂ New Cases
2020-03-01 88,369 1.027 2,358 1.247
2020-03-02 90,306 1.022 1,937 0.821
2020-03-03 92,840 1.028 2,534 1.308
2020-03-04 95,120 1.025 2,280 0.900
2020-03-05 97,882 1.029 2,762 1.211
2020-03-06 101,784 1.040 3,902 1.413
2020-03-07 105,821 1.040 4,037 1.035
2020-03-08 109,795 1.038 3,974 0.984
2020-03-09 113,561 1.034 3,766 0.948
2020-03-10 118,592 1.044 5,031 1.336
2020-03-11 125,865 1.061 7,273 1.446
2020-03-12 128,343 1.020 2,478 0.341
2020-03-13 145,193 1.131 16,850 6.800
2020-03-14 156,094 1.075 10,901 0.647
2020-03-15 167,446 1.073 11,352 1.041
2020-03-16 181,527 1.084 14,081 1.240
2020-03-17 197,142 1.086 15,615 1.109
2020-03-18 214,910 1.090 17,768 1.138
2020-03-19 242,708 1.129 27,798 1.564
2020-03-20 272,166 1.121 29,458 1.060
2020-03-21 304,524 1.119 32,358 1.098
2020-03-22 335,955 1.103 31,431 0.971